Starting with Gwinnett, this northern Atlanta suburban county used to be solidly Republican territory. Two counties where we might be able to see that these trends converge are: Gwinnett County in Georgia and Wilson County, NC. For that reason, I’m keeping a close eye on the Sunbelt, especially Georgia and NC, for signs of what started in 2018 is now extending into 2020. rural/exurban, gender gap between the two parties) are now, likely, to come into fuller view. I got to cover the 2018 House midterms, and the themes for that election (suburban flight from GOP, deeper party polarization in suburban/urban vs. (Remember Super Tuesday?) To your question, Charlie, is ‘everything’ too broad of an answer? Ok, fine, I’ll specify slightly more. ![]() Hey, all! Reporting live from my couch, which is where I’ve been since … Super Tuesday. So will that number end up being less than 100,000, or not? Democrats, including Biden's campaign, spent a ton of money educating voters about this rule to prevent that. Earlier this year, one election official said the rule could result in upwards of 100,000 mail-in ballots being thrown out. You might have heard of this: In Pennsylvania, if you don't submit your mail ballot with the proper envelope, it's called a naked ballot - and it will get tossed out. Secondly, I'm looking to see if we get a sense tonight of how many "naked ballots" there are in the state. I just got off the phone with the City Commissioners office in Philadelphia, and they told me that all the machines that process mail ballots are up and running and that things are going smoothly. So first, I'm looking to see what exactly we learn tonight and how quickly local governments across the state are able to process mail ballots. Bob Casey told me he thought the race could potentially be called in Pennsylvania tonight. Election officials were not permitted by law to begin counting mail-in ballots in the state until today, so we may not know the presidential election results here for days. Good evening from Philadelphia! I'm totally zeroed in on Pennsylvania tonight. Eastern in the GOP-leaning Panhandle, so there's time for more Republican votes, too Polls close in an hour and 15 minutes in most of Florida, and Democrats tend to vote a little later in the day, so they could eat a bit back into Republican margins. Biden probably needs to win independents by 7 points if the composition of the electorate continues to look like this. Nearly every poll says Biden leads with them, but the question is how much. Now, 24% of the electorate are no independent party affiliation/third party voters, so it's anyone's guess how they break. ![]() Not every Democrat is voting for Biden nor ever Republican for Trump, so we're using these raw ballot numbers as a sign of intensity. Biden wants to keep that margin at 2 or below. Republicans then stormed the polls today and led Democrats by about 184,000 ballots cast, or 1.7 points. They began the day in a hole to Democrats in total ballots cast, with the Dems ahead by 115,000 early and absentee ballots cast, a margin of 1.3 percentage points. update, Republicans have been dominating the day in turnout, as expected. ![]() We're watching turnout and we can do it almost in real-time. I'm watching three things: Florida, Florida, Florida. To win like this, Biden would need a good share of independents (as much as a 7-point margin) or more GOP voters for him than Dem voters for Trump. So it could be higher or lower than R+1.8. We don’t know the final composition of the electorate. It was R+0.6 in 2016 when Trump won by 1.2 points. As of about 6:30, the GOP’s share of vote was 1.8 percentage points higher than the Democrats, known as an R+1.8 electorate. More Republicans are voting than Democrats in Florida. When more Republicans vote than Democrats, the Republican has won. ![]() Bottom line: when more Democrats vote than Republicans, the Democrat has won Florida. He would be the 1st top-of-the-ticket candidate to carry the state even though his party had a lower share of ballots cast than the opponent’s party. If Biden wins FL tonight, it will be unique. Polls are now closed in the Eastern Time Zone of FL, they'll be open for another hour in Central.
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